### The Consequences of Cutting USAID for America

 There is increasing concern in Washington that suddenly ending assistance from the U.S. Agency for International Development could create an opportunity for China and Russia, according to one analyst.

A man walks past boxes of USAID humanitarian aid at a warehouse in Colombia.

Feb. 4, 2025, 9:05 PM GMT+6

The Trump administration's efforts to dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) have sparked concerns that America's global influence may decline as rival nations, such as China and Russia, move to fill the gap.

Experts in Washington worry that the suspension of USAID assistance could create opportunities for geopolitical adversaries. George Ingram, a former senior USAID official, told NBC News that the halt "opens up a window for China and Russia." He was among several analysts cautioning that this move could diminish U.S. influence in Africa, South America, and Asia, where USAID has historically provided aid ranging from healthcare to clean water. Additionally, the agency has directed millions in military aid to allies like Israel and Ukraine.

“Nobody anticipated” that President Trump would suspend most foreign aid and "decapitate USAID of its personnel," said Ingram, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. On his first day in office, Trump issued an executive order pausing foreign aid funding for at least 90 days to evaluate its alignment with his "America First" policy.

Since then, hundreds of USAID employees and contractors have been fired or furloughed, and most foreign assistance has stalled. As of Monday, the USAID website was inaccessible, displaying an error message. That same day, Elon Musk, appointed as a "special government employee" by the White House, stated that USAID would be shut down. "You’ve got to basically get rid of the whole thing. It’s beyond repair," Musk said. "We’re shutting it down."

The billionaire, who also leads the Department of Government Efficiency, claimed he had discussed USAID extensively with President Trump, who confirmed the decision. “I actually checked with him a few times,” Musk said. “He said, ‘Yes.’”

When asked whether Congress would need to approve the agency's closure, Trump responded, “I don’t know, I don’t think so … we just want to do the right thing.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced Monday that he was now acting director of USAID and had assigned Pete Marocco, director of foreign assistance at the State Department, to review the agency’s operations. Rubio warned that certain programs might be suspended or eliminated. He clarified that the plan was not to end all USAID initiatives outright but to assess whether they should be managed by the State Department or a restructured agency.

However, the freeze on funding is already impacting vulnerable populations, according to Peter Taylor, director of the Institute of Development Studies. In one case, a sanitation workshop was abruptly halted due to the funding suspension.

A Congressional Research Service review last month found that USAID provided assistance to about 130 countries, with top recipients including Jordan, Syria, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. Ukraine, which has been at war with Russia since President Vladimir Putin's invasion, was the largest beneficiary. USAID has also provided millions in military aid to Israel and humanitarian assistance to Palestinians in Gaza during Israel’s military operations.

Despite the freeze, NBC News reported that Rubio authorized waivers for foreign military financing for Israel and Egypt, as well as emergency food aid and administrative expenses necessary for its distribution.

In the 2023 fiscal year, the U.S. allocated more than $44.6 billion for international development. However, this accounted for less than 1% of the federal budget, a smaller share than that of some other nations.

‘America’s enemies will rejoice’Founded in 1961 by President John F. Kennedy, USAID was created to counter Soviet influence during the Cold War, based on the idea that U.S. security is tied to global stability and economic progress. Since then, foreign aid has been a key component of "soft power"—a concept popularized by political scientist Joseph Nye, describing the ability to influence outcomes through diplomacy and assistance rather than military force.

Experts warn that abruptly suspending foreign aid could severely damage trust in the U.S. as a reliable partner. "This will have a significant impact," said Ingram, adding that it could undo decades of goodwill. Michael Schiffer, former assistant administrator of USAID’s Bureau for Asia, was even more direct in his critique. Writing for Just Security, he stated, "The Trump administration has just put America last while handing a gift to our biggest adversaries, notably China. America’s alliances will suffer. U.S. partners will be at risk. And America’s enemies will rejoice."

Schiffer also warned that national security could be jeopardized, as disruptions to aid programs might destabilize nations, fuel extremism, and exacerbate migration crises.

Even some of Trump’s allies have expressed concern. During a recent Senate Budget Committee hearing for Russell Vought, Trump’s nominee for budget chief, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) emphasized the importance of soft power in U.S. foreign policy. “If you don’t get involved in the world and don’t have programs in Africa while China is trying to buy the whole continent, we’re making a mistake,” he said. “The concept of soft power means a lot to me—and that’s coming from a pretty hawkish guy.”