The U.S. House welcomes a slim Republican majority to address significant challenges in 2025.

As members resign and leave for positions in Donald Trump’s administration, the House GOP could face a zero-vote margin for defection during the critical early months of his presidency.

Donald Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., in Palm Beach, Fla., on April 12.

Jan. 3, 2025, 5:00 PM GMT+6

WASHINGTON — The new Congress is set to convene on Friday, marking the beginning of a slim House Republican majority tasked with addressing major issues in the first year of Donald Trump’s second term. These challenges include keeping the government funded, preventing a catastrophic debt default, and pushing forward the president-elect’s immigration and tax priorities.

In the 2024 elections, Republicans secured a 220-215 seat majority, though they will start with just 219 members due to the resignation of former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Fla., who has pledged not to reclaim his seat. This means House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., can only afford one defection in his re-election bid on Friday. However, holding onto his position will be the least of Johnson’s concerns. The real challenge lies ahead: the Republican majority is expected to shrink even further in the coming weeks as Trump has announced plans to appoint two House Republicans — Michael Waltz of Florida as national security adviser and Elise Stefanik of New York as the U.N. ambassador. Their replacements could take months to find, further reducing the majority. Should both depart before Gaetz is replaced, the majority will dip to a fragile 217-215, meaning a single defection could derail legislation unless Democrats support it.

This leaves House Republicans with a precarious zero-vote margin for error in the early months of Trump’s presidency. Even once the majority returns to full strength, passing party-line bills could be challenging, as illness, scheduling conflicts, or travel delays may prevent members from reaching Washington for crucial votes. Meanwhile, Republicans will hold a slightly larger majority in the Senate at 53-47, as senators are sworn in on Friday and begin scheduling hearings for Trump’s Cabinet picks.

With these dynamics in mind, Republicans face a significant agenda in 2025.

Government Funding by March 14
The recent standoff over a short-term funding bill merely pushed the deadline to March 14, less than two months after Trump’s inauguration. This leaves Republicans needing to strike a deal with Democrats on government funding, a recurring point of contention between GOP moderates, military hawks, and conservative hardliners.

Historically, House Republicans struggle to pass a funding bill without Democratic support due to defections from their right flank. Even if they manage to unify their conference, they will need 60 votes in the Senate to pass legislation, requiring cooperation from House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and incoming Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., to avert a shutdown. Ultimately, Johnson will need to sell a compromise bill to members who often resist such measures.

Advancing Trump's Immigration, Energy, and Tax Agenda
Republicans aim to move quickly on legislation to advance key elements of Trump’s platform. They plan to use the budget reconciliation process to bypass the Senate’s 60-vote threshold, allowing them to pass bills with only GOP votes. However, this approach comes with limitations: it requires passing a budget resolution to set fiscal parameters, and the final legislation can only address spending and tax policy. Democrats can block provisions that don’t meet these criteria, making compromises inevitable.

Disagreements have already emerged, particularly over the strategy for passing these bills. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., is advocating for splitting the legislation into two bills, with a quick win on border security funding before tackling Trump’s tax cuts later in the year. However, Rep. Jason Smith, R-Mo., chair of the tax-writing Ways and Means Committee, warns that delaying the tax bill risks a multitrillion-dollar tax increase.

Republicans will also need to come together on divisive issues like the size of the deficit and which parts of President Biden’s legacy achievements should be repealed to fund their new policies. Some of the programs Republicans aim to cut, such as Biden’s clean-energy initiatives, benefit conservative districts represented by GOP lawmakers, making these decisions more complicated.

Extending the Debt Ceiling
Under a bipartisan law passed last year, the U.S. is set to hit its debt ceiling this month and will begin using "extraordinary measures" to prevent default. This will buy Congress a few months, but lawmakers will ultimately need to extend the debt ceiling sometime in 2025.

Trump’s recent attempt to remove the debt ceiling issue from his agenda was rejected by both parties, though 170 GOP members supported a bill to fund the government without addressing the debt limit. Many Republicans typically oppose raising the debt ceiling, but Democrats — who often help Republicans in these situations — may be hesitant to assist if the GOP passes a party-line tax bill perceived to benefit the wealthy.

Republicans are considering negotiating a debt ceiling hike alongside $2.5 trillion in spending cuts, a proposal aimed at appeasing conservative hardliners. However, some skeptics doubt the viability of this deal. Rep. Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., who has opposed previous debt ceiling hikes, dismissed the agreement as untrustworthy, saying, “They call that a gentleman’s agreement... And there are no gentlemen up here, dude.”