Experts warn that the growing threat of attacks is being fueled by a "perfect storm" of rising online extremism and political polarization.

Accessing extremism online is easier than ever, the threat has reached unprecedented levels, and the ideologies driving attacks have become more fragmented than before.

Jan. 4, 2025, 4:00 PM GMT+6

The ISIS-inspired attack in New Orleans highlights how online extremism and political divisions in the U.S. have created a "perfect storm" for radicalization, according to experts. This storm is compounded by the ease of accessing extremist content online and the increasingly fragmented ideologies that motivate violent acts, they say. Law enforcement faces a growing challenge in tracking these diverse threats.

Experts point out that the current landscape of extremism is both complex and widespread, with individuals becoming radicalized from a range of ideological positions. Seamus Hughes, a researcher at the National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center, explains that the polarized political environment and algorithms designed to provoke anger play a significant role in increasing radicalization.

The primary terror threat in the U.S. is currently lone actors driven by extremist ideologies. These ideologies vary widely, with far-right views being the dominant source of domestic terrorism, as in the 2022 Buffalo shooting. However, attacks motivated by radical Islamism, like the New Orleans incident, also remain significant. Sometimes, attacks are driven by mixed ideologies, a trend that FBI Director Christopher Wray has termed “salad bar extremism.”

Radicalization does not always lead to violence, but experts agree that the real concern is when individuals move from radical beliefs to violent actions. John Horgan, a psychologist at Georgia State University, emphasizes that the ideologies behind the violence are often secondary to the attackers' desire for significance.

Shamsud-Din Jabbar, the suspect in the New Orleans attack, seems to fit the pattern of someone selecting an ideology to justify pre-existing intentions. While he had been an observant Muslim, he later pledged allegiance to ISIS and chose to target strangers instead of family and friends to amplify the political message.

The attack in New Orleans, while not the most deadly linked to ISIS in recent years, shares similarities with other lone-wolf incidents, including the 2016 Pulse nightclub shooting. Both attacks, though resulting in limited damage and casualties, carried deep political symbolism.

Experts argue that radicalization is influenced by personal crises, such as job loss or the death of a loved one. In recent years, societal disruptions, including the economic downturn and the pandemic, have exacerbated these conditions. This sense of disempowerment can motivate individuals to engage in violent actions on behalf of a radical ideology.

In particular, military veterans have been identified as vulnerable to radicalization, given their skills, training, and capacity for action. The case of Jabbar, who faced personal and financial crises before his attack, mirrors patterns seen in other veterans who transition from radicalization to violence.

While law enforcement has made significant strides in preventing terrorist attacks, particularly those linked to Islamist extremism, there has been a rise in violent incidents tied to far-right ideologies. Federal agencies, including the FBI, have shifted resources to combat domestic terrorism, especially in the wake of political divisions exacerbated by Trump’s re-election bid. Experts warn that as the political climate remains charged, the risk of political violence from both the far-right and the far-left is likely to persist.