Some of the nation's top fire investigators are working to uncover the causes of the fires.
Jan. 12, 2025, 12:15 AM GMT+6 / Updated Jan. 12, 2025, 8:31 AM GMT+6
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The origin of the still-burning Palisades Fire likely lies on a brush-covered hilltop where the flames erupted shortly after 10:30 a.m. on Tuesday.
Fire investigators are working to determine the cause of the blaze, though one common culprit—lightning—has already been ruled out due to the absence of stormy weather. The area near the Temescal Ridge Trail also lacks power lines or transformers, eliminating another frequent source of wildfires.
That leaves human activity as the most probable cause. Was it arson? Four experts interviewed by NBC News believe it’s possible, though they consider it unlikely the fire was set intentionally.
“This is rugged, inaccessible terrain,” said Rick Crawford, a former battalion chief with the Los Angeles Fire Department. “Arsonists don’t typically venture 500 feet off a trail through dense brush to start a fire and then flee.”
Wildfires are common in Los Angeles’ wooded peripheries, often ignited unintentionally by homeless individuals. Such fires rarely grow into destructive blazes unless high winds are present. However, the combination of fierce winds and dry conditions this week created ideal circumstances for rapid fire spread.
“You don’t need a gang of arsonists; nature is doing it for you,” said Scott Fischer, a retired federal arson investigator. While copycat arson occasionally occurs during major fire events, experts say it’s unlikely a coordinated group of arsonists is responsible.
The Eaton Fire
The Eaton Fire, the second-largest blaze currently impacting Los Angeles, is also unlikely to have been caused by arson. This fire began Tuesday evening near Altadena, in an area with high-voltage transmission lines. Experts suggest whipping winds may have caused the lines to collide, shedding tiny balls of molten metal that could ignite dry vegetation.
“It’s possible the fire started with a spark from power lines,” said Ed Nordskog, a retired arson detective. “But it could also have been caused by something as mundane as a camping stove or a spark from equipment like a lawn mower.”
Intentional ignition remains improbable, Nordskog added. “There’s no evidence to support the idea that wind events bring out arsonists.”
Investigative Challenges
Uncovering the cause of a wildfire is a meticulous process, requiring specialized skills and patience.
The first step is identifying the fire’s origin point using burn patterns and debris as clues. Investigators then grid the area with string and examine it inch by inch, often crawling on hands and knees with tools like metal detectors and magnifying glasses.
In the case of the Eaton Fire, magnets may help locate melted metal fragments that could indicate power line sparks. However, the presence of such fragments doesn’t confirm their role in the fire’s ignition. “You have to determine whether the spark came before or after the fire started,” Nordskog explained.
If evidence suggests human involvement, investigators must discern whether it was accidental, negligent, or deliberate.
Human Factors
According to John Abatzoglou, a climatology professor at the University of California, Merced, most wildfires in Los Angeles County from 1992 to 2020 were caused by human activities, often involving vehicles or equipment.
“Over 95% of these fires are human-ignited,” Abatzoglou said. “While arson is a factor, most human-caused fires are unintentional.”
A Skilled Task Force
Speculation about arson gained traction online Thursday when residents in Woodland Hills detained a man suspected of setting a trash fire. While he was arrested, police lacked sufficient evidence to charge him with arson.
In addition to the Palisades and Eaton fires, four other wildfires are under investigation. A task force comprising the Los Angeles Fire and Police Departments, the Sheriff’s Department, Cal Fire, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is leading the probe.
“Everything is absolutely on the table,” said Los Angeles County Sheriff Robert Luna at a Saturday press conference.
With 16 fatalities and widespread destruction, investigators are committed to uncovering the fires’ causes, a process that could take months—or even years—depending on the circumstances.
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