America's second withdrawal from Paris is different from the first.

 

Photo illustration: Brendan Lynch

President Trump's decision to initiate the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement for a second time sends a clear message to global partners that the U.S. is inconsistent in its commitment to climate action.

Why it matters: The global landscape today is vastly different from 2017, when Trump first attempted to pull the U.S. out of the emerging agreement. There is now considerable momentum within the Paris framework and a rapidly growing clean energy sector, meaning the withdrawal may only have symbolic significance.

Key point: The U.S., the second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China, exiting the agreement, even temporarily, could lead other nations to view the U.S. as an unreliable partner on climate and possibly other global issues. While no other country followed the U.S. departure in the past, the current political shift in some countries could lead to a different outcome this time.

This decision comes on the heels of the hottest year on record, with the effects of climate change becoming more evident, such as the devastating wildfires in California and powerful hurricanes like Helene and Milton. However, it also comes as clean energy innovation and implementation have reached new heights.

Additional context: Although the U.S. withdrawal won’t be immediate, the executive order will treat it as effective immediately. The order also includes broad measures, such as cutting funding for the UN climate body that coordinates climate summits and activities under the Paris Agreement and other climate accords. It will also block U.S. contributions to international climate financing, which supports countries in adapting to climate impacts and advancing clean energy projects.

The official withdrawal process requires U.S. diplomats to notify the UN climate body, which triggers a year-long process to finalize the exit. There are also questions about whether the U.S. will participate in climate summits during this period or abstain completely.

A U.S. exit could benefit China, which already surpasses the U.S. in clean tech development.

Reality check: The global community is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement's targets. If the U.S.'s retreat leads to slower global emission reductions, the world will face even more severe climate impacts, putting the 2°C goal, which many experts believe is still achievable with rapid emissions cuts, at greater risk.

What they're saying: "There is no sugar-coating this — it will harm global efforts to fight climate change and ultimately undermine the future prosperity and security of U.S. citizens," said Kaveh Guilanpour from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.