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| Russian soldiers firing rockets toward the front lines near Lyman, Ukraine, on Dec. 25. |
Jan. 24, 2025, 1:26 PM GMT+6
SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea's military reported on Friday that it suspects North Korea is preparing to send more troops to Russia, following heavy casualties among its soldiers involved in the ongoing Ukraine conflict.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff of South Korea also highlighted in a report shared with journalists that North Korea is continuing its preparations to test-fire an intercontinental ballistic missile, which is intended to target the United States.
With the possibility of Donald Trump's return to the White House, Pyongyang may see a more favorable chance for high-level diplomacy with Washington. Trump previously met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un three times during his first term. Experts suggest that Kim may believe that his advancing nuclear program and growing military cooperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin could provide him with greater leverage than during his 2018-19 talks with Trump.
North Korea has been supplying a significant amount of artillery and conventional weapons to Russia, and in October, sent around 10,000 to 12,000 troops to Russia, according to U.S., South Korean, and Ukrainian intelligence sources. South Korea, the U.S., and others are concerned that Russia could reciprocate by transferring advanced weapons technologies to North Korea, potentially bolstering its nuclear capabilities. North Korean soldiers, though highly disciplined and well-trained, lack combat experience and are unfamiliar with the flat terrains typical of the Russian-Ukraine war. As a result, they have become vulnerable to drone and artillery attacks.
South Korea’s intelligence agency recently reported that approximately 300 North Korean soldiers have died and 2,700 others have been wounded. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy previously stated that the death or injury toll was around 4,000, though U.S. estimates were lower, around 1,200.
The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff also assessed that North Korea is accelerating efforts to deploy additional troops to Russia, though it did not provide specifics on how this conclusion was reached.
The growing military alliance between North Korea and Russia could embolden Kim in his negotiations with the U.S. and South Korea. During a political conference last month, Kim reaffirmed his commitment to pursuing the “toughest” anti-U.S. policies. However, many experts believe Kim may eventually be willing to engage in talks with Trump if he believes the U.S. president could offer concessions.
Previous negotiations broke down after Trump rejected Kim’s proposal to dismantle North Korea’s main nuclear complex in exchange for significant sanctions relief. Since then, Kim has accelerated his weapons tests to expand a nuclear missile arsenal aimed at the U.S. and South Korea.
In South Korea, there are concerns that Trump may shift his focus away from North Korea’s complete denuclearization and instead prioritize the elimination of its long-range missile program, which poses a direct threat to the U.S., while leaving North Korea’s nuclear capabilities against South Korea intact. During a Fox News interview on Thursday, Trump described Kim as “a smart guy” and “not a religious zealot.” When asked if he would reach out to Kim again, Trump replied, “I will, yeah.”
On Monday, Trump referred to North Korea as “a nuclear power” and boasted about his personal relationship with Kim. This raised eyebrows in South Korea, as Washington, Seoul, and their allies have historically avoided labeling North Korea as a nuclear state to avoid legitimizing its pursuit of nuclear weapons, which violates U.N. Security Council resolutions. Trump remarked, “I was very friendly with him. He liked me. I liked him. Now he is a nuclear power. But we got along. I think he’ll be happy to see I’m coming back.”
In response, Jeon Ha Gyu, a spokesperson for South Korea's Ministry of Defense, emphasized on Tuesday that the efforts to achieve North Korea’s denuclearization must continue, not only to ensure lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula but also globally. The South Korean Foreign Ministry added that it would closely coordinate with the Trump administration to pursue North Korea’s denuclearization.
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